The Bottom Line:
- Large traders have sold at least $6 billion worth of Bitcoin since October 2023, the largest selling spree since 2021.
- Historically, these larger holders have a decent track record, selling during market peaks in 2021 and 2018 and accumulating during bear market bottoms in 2019 and 2022.
- The 150-day moving average is a useful trend indicator for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency remaining in a strong uptrend despite recent selling.
- Nearly 100% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit, which often happens at market peaks but can remain for extended periods.
- Respecting the trend and using trendline analysis is crucial when trading Bitcoin.
Largest Bitcoin Selling Spree by Whales Since 2021
Whales Offload Over $6 Billion in Bitcoin Since October 2023
Since October 2023, large traders, often referred to as “whales,” have sold at least $6 billion worth of Bitcoin, marking the most significant selling spree by these market players since 2021. The number of addresses holding 10 or more Bitcoin has steadily declined since October 2023, dropping by 5,000 addresses. These sizable addresses belong to investors who currently have over $600,000 in Bitcoin, indicating that they are not small, casual retail investors. Investors trading at this size have likely been in the market longer and may have more experience than those with smaller capital invested in the space.
Historical Trends: Whales’ Selling and Accumulation Patterns
Historically, these larger holders have a decent track record. They sold during market peaks in 2021 and 2018 and accumulated during bear market bottoms in 2019 and 2022. In 2021, for example, they began offloading their Bitcoin as the price surged past $20,000, continuing through the major distribution and peak of April 2021. Similarly, in 2017, they started selling when Bitcoin was nearing its all-time high of around $20,000 at the end of November. Two weeks later, Bitcoin put in a major top and entered an extended bear market, crashing by 82% over the course of a year.
In addition to selling during market peaks, these large holders have historically accumulated Bitcoin during bear market bottoms, taking advantage of lower prices to build their positions. In 2019, as Bitcoin traded in the $3,000 to $4,000 range at the bottom of the bear market, they were building massive positions. This accumulation phase proved very profitable when Bitcoin eventually reached new highs. A similar story unfolded in 2022, with the number of addresses holding 10 or more Bitcoins rising by 10,000 as the price traded in the $16,000 to $30,000 range.
Current Market Trends and Retail Investor Behavior
Despite the continued selling from large holders since October 2023, Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend today. This could be stemming from the new ETF flows that have been extremely correlated with the price of Bitcoin. As new ETF flows have come in, Bitcoin’s price has risen, compensating for the selling seen from actual on-chain Bitcoin addresses. Most of these inflows are coming from retail investors, who, unfortunately, don’t have the greatest track record. They often sell in panic at bottoms at a loss and buy in euphoria at tops when in profit.
Currently, close to 100% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, which often happens at peaks. However, such profit levels can remain for extended periods, as seen in October 2020 and December 2016. This is why it’s incredibly important to respect the trend when trading Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin remains above the 150-day moving average and the simple trend line that highlights where traders have previously stepped in to buy, it’s in a technical uptrend. If Bitcoin begins to break below this trend line, it would be an ominous signal for the market.
Historical Trends: Whales Selling at Peaks, Accumulating at Bottoms
Historical Trends: Whales Selling at Peaks, Accumulating at Bottoms
Historically, larger Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales,” have demonstrated a pattern of selling during market peaks and accumulating during bear market bottoms. In 2021, they began offloading their Bitcoin as the price surged past $20,000, continuing through the major distribution and peak of April 2021. Similarly, in 2017, they started selling when Bitcoin was nearing its all-time high of around $20,000 at the end of November. Two weeks later, Bitcoin reached a major top and entered an extended bear market, crashing by 82% over the course of a year.
On the other hand, these whales have also shown a tendency to accumulate Bitcoin during bear market bottoms, taking advantage of lower prices to build their positions. In 2019, as Bitcoin traded in the $3,000 to $4,000 range at the bottom of the bear market, they were building massive positions. This accumulation phase proved very profitable when Bitcoin eventually reached new highs. A similar story unfolded in 2022, with the number of addresses holding 10 or more Bitcoins rising by 10,000 as the price traded in the $16,000 to $30,000 range.
Whales’ Track Record and Market Impact
While these larger holders have a decent track record of selling at peaks and accumulating at bottoms, they are far from perfect. For example, they bought heavily in late 2019 before Bitcoin dropped by an impressive 50% over the course of the next year. It’s important to note that nobody has a crystal ball, but as traders, it’s crucial to be mindful of what others are doing in the market.
Currently, these larger investors are selling, but to understand the situation more fully, it’s necessary to look at the recent price trends on Bitcoin. One simple yet very useful trend indicator is the 150-day moving average. When Bitcoin crosses this moving average, it typically indicates a bull market. During strong uptrends, Bitcoin stays above the 150-day moving average very consistently. As trend followers, traders want to respect the trend until the technical structure changes.
Retail Investor Behavior and Market Outlook
Despite the continued selling from large holders since October 2023, Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend today. This could be stemming from the new ETF flows that have been extremely correlated with the price of Bitcoin. As new ETF flows have come in, Bitcoin’s price has risen, compensating for the selling seen from actual on-chain Bitcoin addresses. Most of these inflows are coming from retail investors, who, unfortunately, don’t have the greatest track record. They often sell in panic at bottoms at a loss and buy in euphoria at tops when in profit.
Currently, close to 100% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, which often happens at peaks. However, such profit levels can remain for extended periods, as seen in October 2020 and December 2016. This is why it’s incredibly important to respect the trend when trading Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin remains above the 150-day moving average and the simple trend line that highlights where traders have previously stepped in to buy, it’s in a technical uptrend. If Bitcoin begins to break below this trend line, it would be an ominous signal for the market.
Bitcoin’s 150-Day Moving Average Indicates Strong Uptrend Despite Selling
Bitcoin’s 150-Day Moving Average Indicates Strong Uptrend
Despite the significant selling spree by large traders, often referred to as “whales,” since October 2023, Bitcoin’s price remains in a strong uptrend. One key indicator supporting this trend is the 150-day moving average. When Bitcoin crosses above this moving average, it typically signifies a bull market. During strong uptrends, Bitcoin consistently stays above the 150-day moving average, and as trend followers, traders should respect this trend until the technical structure changes.
Currently, the 150-day moving average stands at around $60,000, which is approximately 10-15% below current levels. This indicates that Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, despite the continued selling from large holders. The sustained uptrend could be attributed to the new ETF flows that have been highly correlated with the price of Bitcoin. As new ETF inflows have entered the market, Bitcoin’s price has risen, offsetting the selling pressure from actual on-chain Bitcoin addresses.
Retail Investors’ Impact on the Market
It’s important to note that most of these ETF inflows are coming from retail investors, who, unfortunately, have a less-than-stellar track record. Retail investors often sell in panic at bottoms, incurring losses, and buy in euphoria at tops when in profit. Currently, close to 100% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, which often occurs at market peaks. However, such profit levels can persist for extended periods, as seen in October 2020 and December 2016.
In October 2020, when Bitcoin was trading at $12,000, almost 100% of addresses were in profit. From that point on, Bitcoin’s price quadrupled over the next few months. Similarly, in December 2016, when Bitcoin’s price was under $1,000, 100% of the supply was also in profit. Bitcoin’s price then went up 20-fold from that level over the course of the next year. This highlights the importance of respecting the trend when trading Bitcoin.
Navigating the Bitcoin Market
To effectively trade the trend, traders can use the 150-day moving average in conjunction with a simple trend line that highlights where traders have previously stepped in to buy Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin remains above this trend line, it is considered to be in a technical uptrend. However, if Bitcoin begins to break below this trend line, it would be an ominous signal for the market.
For those looking to trade Bitcoin, platforms like Capital.com offer a user-friendly interface to get started. It’s crucial for traders to stay informed about market trends, monitor key indicators, and make well-informed decisions based on their analysis and risk tolerance.
Nearly All Bitcoin Addresses in Profit: A Sign of Market Peak?
Nearly All Bitcoin Addresses in Profit: A Sign of Market Peak?
Today, close to 100% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit, which often happens at market peaks. However, such profit levels can remain for extended periods, as seen in the past. In October 2020, when Bitcoin was trading at $12,000, almost 100% of addresses were in profit. From that point on, Bitcoin’s price quadrupled over the next few months. Similarly, in December 2016, when Bitcoin’s price was under $1,000, 100% of the supply was also in profit. Bitcoin’s price then went up 20-fold from that level over the course of the next year.
Large Traders Selling, but Bitcoin Remains in Strong Uptrend
Despite the continued selling from large holders since October 2023, Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend today. This could be stemming from the new ETF flows that have been extremely correlated with the price of Bitcoin. As new ETF inflows have come in, Bitcoin’s price has risen, compensating for the selling seen from actual on-chain Bitcoin addresses. Most of these inflows are coming from retail investors, who, unfortunately, don’t have the greatest track record. They often sell in panic at bottoms at a loss and buy in euphoria at tops when in profit.
Respecting the Trend: Key to Trading Bitcoin
To effectively trade Bitcoin, it’s incredibly important to respect the trend. One simple yet very useful trend indicator is the 150-day moving average. When Bitcoin crosses above this moving average, it typically indicates a bull market. During strong uptrends, Bitcoin stays above the 150-day moving average very consistently. As trend followers, traders want to respect the trend until the technical structure changes.
On top of the 150-day moving average, traders can add a simple trend line that highlights where traders have previously stepped in to buy Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin remains above this trend line, it’s in a technical uptrend. If Bitcoin begins to break below this trend line, it would be an ominous signal for the market. For those looking to trade Bitcoin, platforms like Capital.com offer a user-friendly interface to get started.
Trendline Analysis: The Key to Navigating Bitcoin’s Volatile Market
Trendline Analysis: A Powerful Tool for Navigating Bitcoin’s Volatility
Trendline analysis is a crucial tool for traders looking to navigate the volatile Bitcoin market. By identifying key support and resistance levels, traders can make informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions. One simple yet effective trend indicator is the 150-day moving average. When Bitcoin crosses above this moving average, it typically signifies a bull market, and during strong uptrends, Bitcoin consistently stays above this level. As trend followers, traders should respect the trend until the technical structure changes.
Combining Moving Averages and Trendlines for Optimal Trading Strategies
In addition to the 150-day moving average, traders can incorporate a simple trendline that highlights where buyers have previously stepped in to support Bitcoin’s price. As long as Bitcoin remains above this trendline, it is considered to be in a technical uptrend. However, if Bitcoin breaks below this trendline, it could be an ominous signal for the market, indicating a potential shift in sentiment and a possible trend reversal.
Utilizing Trendline Analysis on User-Friendly Trading Platforms
For traders looking to apply trendline analysis to their Bitcoin trading strategies, user-friendly platforms like Capital.com offer a convenient way to get started. These platforms provide a range of tools and features that enable traders to analyze price action, identify key levels of support and resistance, and execute trades based on their analysis. By combining the power of trendline analysis with the ease of use provided by these platforms, traders can potentially improve their chances of success in the dynamic and ever-changing world of Bitcoin trading.
