The Bottom Line:
- Bitcoin bulls need to hold the weekly 12 EMA and 64.8k value area high to avoid a summer of consolidation
- Ethereum bulls are hoping for a weekly uptrend on the ETH/BTC chart, with the potential for ETF news to drive hype
- Ethereum needs to establish a daily uptrend to confirm a weekly higher low and maintain bullish momentum
- Bitcoin dominance is rising as many altcoins are showing weakness and confirming two-week downtrends
- The ability of Bitcoin to hold key support levels will determine the fate of altcoins in the near term
Bitcoin’s Crucial Support Levels for a Bullish Summer
Bitcoin’s Battle at the Weekly 12 EMA
Bitcoin is currently testing a crucial support level at the weekly 12 EMA, which has been a reliable guide for the bulls for months. If the price can hold above this level, it increases the chances of maintaining the bullish momentum and potentially setting up a weekly higher low. However, if the bears manage to push the price below the weekly 12 EMA, it could lead to a tightening range and a potentially boring summer for Bitcoin.
The Importance of the 64.8k Value Area High
Another key level to watch for Bitcoin is the 64.8k value area high from the previous range. If the price falls back into this area, it could signal a period of consolidation and range-bound trading. On the other hand, if the bulls can defend this level and establish a higher low, it would be a positive sign for the overall market structure.
Short-Term Bullish Momentum and Resistance Levels
In the short-term, Bitcoin is showing some bullish momentum, with a nice 3-hour move to the upside. However, it’s important to note that the price is approaching some key resistance levels. The first resistance is at 67,370, the high of Friday, followed by the daily 12 EMA around 67.5k. If the bulls can push through these levels and establish a daily higher low on the next consolidation, it would further increase the odds of a weekly higher low forming, potentially setting up a cup and handle pattern at the all-time highs.
Ethereum’s Potential Catalysts and ETH/BTC Uptrend Hopes
Ethereum’s Potential ETF Catalyst
Ethereum has been showing some relative strength recently, with an ETF update suggesting that the over/under for when they’re going to start trading or get approved is July 2nd. This potential catalyst has brought some hype back into ETH, aligning with the previously discussed idea that once more information trickles in on the ETFs, it could reignite interest in Ethereum.
The Importance of a Daily Uptrend for ETH
While the fundamentals are looking promising for Ethereum, it’s crucial for the price to establish a daily uptrend to confirm the bullish sentiment. Bulls would love for the current level to act as a daily higher low, as going much deeper would make it harder to confirm a daily uptrend. On the 4-hour chart, ETH has seen a decent bounce, retracing more than half of the move down. However, it needs to establish a 4-hour uptrend to further solidify the bullish case.
Ethereum’s Relative Performance and the Altcoin Market
When comparing Ethereum to Bitcoin, it’s evident that ETH has shown some relative weakness today, with Bitcoin pushing higher on its own while ETH stalls out sideways. This is reflected in the consolidation of the ETH/BTC ratio chart. Looking at the broader altcoin market, the situation is not particularly encouraging, with many alts trading in the red while Bitcoin dominance sees a significant green day. The key question is whether more altcoins will confirm their two-week downtrends, which largely depends on Bitcoin’s ability to hold its weekly 12 EMA support.
Establishing a Daily Uptrend: Ethereum’s Path to Maintain Bullish Momentum
Ethereum’s Path to a Weekly Uptrend
For Ethereum to establish a bullish trajectory, it needs to form a weekly uptrend on the ETH/BTC chart. This would require a daily trend change, with bulls holding the recent lows and pushing the price above the high of Sunday’s candle. If successful, this would shape up a weekly higher low on the ETH/BTC chart, potentially leading to the first weekly uptrend since December 2022. However, if the price falls back down, the best-case scenario for bulls would be a tightening range on the ETH/BTC pair.
The Significance of the Weekly 12 EMA for ETH/USD
On the ETH/USD chart, bulls are striving to hold the weekly 12 EMA and form a weekly higher low. To achieve this, a daily trend change is necessary. The recent ETF update, suggesting a potential July 2nd approval or trading date, has brought some relative strength to Ethereum. However, the fundamentals alone are not enough; a daily uptrend is crucial for the bullish case. If the price dips much lower, confirming a daily uptrend will become increasingly challenging.
Ethereum’s Short-Term Price Action and Relative Performance
In the short-term, Ethereum has seen a notable 4-hour bounce, retracing more than half of the recent move down. However, to confirm a bullish shift, ETH needs to establish a 4-hour uptrend. On the 15-minute chart, Ethereum’s uptrend is not as strong as Bitcoin’s, with ETH stalling sideways while BTC pushes higher. This relative weakness is evident in the consolidation of the ETH/BTC ratio chart. Despite showing relative strength over the past four days, Ethereum is displaying relative weakness today.
Bitcoin Dominance Rising Amidst Altcoin Weakness
Bitcoin Dominance on the Rise
As Bitcoin continues to show strength and hold key support levels, its dominance in the cryptocurrency market is increasing. Many altcoins are struggling, with several trading in the red while Bitcoin enjoys a significant green day. This divergence in performance is evident in the notable rise in Bitcoin dominance, suggesting that investors are favoring the leading cryptocurrency over altcoins in the current market conditions.
Altcoins Struggle to Maintain Support
The altcoin market is facing challenges as many coins are failing to hold their two-week support levels. The fate of these altcoins largely depends on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above the crucial weekly 12 EMA. If Bitcoin can defend this level, it may provide some relief for altcoins, allowing them to form higher lows. However, if Bitcoin falters and dips below the weekly 12 EMA, more altcoins are likely to confirm their two-week downtrends, further strengthening Bitcoin’s dominance.
Phantom and Other Altcoins on the Edge
Among the altcoins fighting to hold their ground, Phantom (FTM) is teetering on the edge of its two-week support. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its bullish momentum, Phantom may be the next in line to join the growing list of altcoins that have already confirmed their two-week downtrends. This pattern is evident across the altcoin market, with many coins facing similar challenges. As Bitcoin dominance continues to rise amidst the weakening altcoin market, investors are closely monitoring the performance of individual altcoins and their ability to withstand the current market pressure.
Bitcoin’s Role in Determining the Fate of Altcoins
The Fate of Altcoins Tied to Bitcoin’s Performance
The performance of altcoins is heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s price action and its ability to maintain key support levels. As Bitcoin dominance rises, many altcoins are struggling to keep up, with several trading in the red while Bitcoin enjoys a significant green day. The divergence in performance between Bitcoin and altcoins is becoming more apparent, with investors favoring the leading cryptocurrency in the current market conditions.
Altcoins Battle to Hold Two-Week Support
The altcoin market is facing challenges as many coins are failing to hold their two-week support levels. The fate of these altcoins largely depends on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above the crucial weekly 12 EMA. If Bitcoin can defend this level, it may provide some relief for altcoins, allowing them to form higher lows. However, if Bitcoin falters and dips below the weekly 12 EMA, more altcoins are likely to confirm their two-week downtrends, further strengthening Bitcoin’s dominance.
Individual Altcoins on the Brink
Among the altcoins fighting to hold their ground, some are teetering on the edge of their two-week support. Phantom (FTM) is one such example, with its fate closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its bullish momentum, Phantom may be the next in line to join the growing list of altcoins that have already confirmed their two-week downtrends. This pattern is evident across the altcoin market, with many coins facing similar challenges as they attempt to withstand the current market pressure.
