The Bottom Line:
- Observing the 10-year interest rate chart in a weekly scale reveals a respected channel and horizontal zones.
- Notable testing and rejection at key levels suggest a potential pattern formation.
- Zooming into daily and hourly scales unveils Fibonacci retracements and RSI momentum considerations.
- Identifying a possible short trade opportunity given price movements and risk-reward ratios.
- Join the Shadow Trader squawkbox for in-depth chart analysis and trading insights.
Analyzing the 10-year interest rate chart in a weekly scale
Analyzing the 10-year interest rate chart in a weekly scale
hello everyone this is Mike with Shadow Trader with all the conversation these days about interest rates is the Fed going to raise is the Fed going to hold is it higher for longer whatever side of the conversation you tend to lean toward I’m aware that the chart is uh it is what it is a chart is a chart to me I believe that a chart is a consensus mechanism that uh often time lets me know something ahead of time that might be shaping up and that might be the case here I don’t know yet but here’s what I see here’s a 10-year interest rate and here we are in a weekly scale we’ve got this channel that it built and respected when it bounced off of it here the most notable thing about this is the horizontal zones that this Market tends to establish and respect and we can see them all the way up through here so I I note that that as a characteristic of this market and I see we have a zone that runs right through here that is now respected it has tested it from underneath this level on on all of these yellow arrows here showing that and we also have a A v-shaped or inverted v-shaped rejection there that took place and so I note that and so I’m wondering if um we’re seeing a oh and some would call this a you know a right shoulder after a fashion pattern here as well it’s not very symmetrical but hey the information is there so uh the Curiosity for me is uh if I blow this up to a daily scale now I can pull this FIB over here and we can see that this is a uh right here is a the price is tested today a Fibonacci retracement of 50% so so let’s get rid of that here real quick and uh I also can get rid of this trend line that it broke and now let’s look at this at a little little clean more cleanly here um I’m wondering if this level is going to hold normally on a Time cycle I would say that because we returned this quickly you can see that you know the this quickly here on this turnaround that it would suggest that the price or the rates are going to continue to head up uh the odds are anyway but um I’m also so I keep that in mind but I’m also wondering what’s going on right here because if you start looking at this a little bit closer in the context of everything and again in the conversation let’s go a little let’s go four hours here we can see that we made a slightly higher high the RSI did not climb into overbought this time um it’s not a real obvious Divergence but anyway it seems to have lost a bit of RSI momentum there and that of course is not a signal in itself and I don’t know why this line is not touching where it’s supposed to be but uh actually you know what I don’t even need that there right now U I’m wondering now the market is closed so this uh this is a regular trading hour candle here let me blow this up and I’m wondering if we’re going to see this roll over and if it does I would look at this as a potential failure to go higher and this could be a short trade in my book now in the aftermarket we’re already moving into the Gap and so I I’m seeing this as a potential short trade and the thing I like about it is if we go in even closer now let’s go on down to a 30 minute if this were to be a Top Again the price has already moved down here and we can look at that here on the on the future side in a second but if this were to be a top the risk above this to test the hypothesis is very little so let’s go ahead and look at the the 10-year Futures and we can see I don’t have everything drawn up the same way but here’s the 50% and uh now we’re we’re we’re it’s having trouble moving holding Above This level so a a short trade here is what I’m possibly interested in with a stop right over top of there and if you like something uh this is just the the small contract and uh the book is thin but it handles a few contracts and I don’t let that worry me too much if I want to trade this in a smaller account but if you want to trade something with a little more Gusto to it here’s the uh I’m sorry I didn’t mean that let’s go back to the uh the Futures Contract on the 10-year the 10-year note and of course this is inverse now but uh here’s a here’s a potential move coming back up um if what I’m seeing is is correct so I I don’t know it’s an idea it’s something to watch it’s something that could actually turn into a great asymmetrical risk reward and that’s what attracts me to the Chart if it’s going to fail if the tenure is not going to hold that level that we’re looking at here then the reward for this type of risk is pretty good and so that’s what has me very interested in this chart today hi my name is Mike with the shadow Trader squawkbox I’d like to invite you to join me in the trading room where we study charts together search out good trade ideas and we spend quite a bit of time talking about what it takes to get along successfully in this journey that we are all on oh by the way don’t forget to hit the like And subscribe buttons below if you enjoyed this video today and as we always say here at Shadow Trader I wish you a good trading and I’ll see you in the room”.
Notable testing and rejection at key levels indicating pattern formation
… all of these yellow arrows here showing that and we also have a A v-shaped or inverted v-shaped rejection there that took place and so I note that and so I’m wondering if um we’re seeing a oh and some would call this a you know a right shoulder after a fashion pattern here as well it’s not very symmetrical but hey the information is there so uh the Curiosity for me is uh if I blow this up to a daily scale now I can pull this FIB over here and we can see that this is a uh right here is a the price is tested today a Fibonacci retracement of 50% so so let’s get rid of that here real quick and uh I also can get rid of this trend line that it broke and now let’s look at this at a little little clean more cleanly here um I’m wondering if this level is going to hold normally on a Time cycle I would say that because we returned this quickly you can see that you know the this quickly here on this turnaround that it would suggest that the price or the rates are going to continue to head up uh the odds are anyway but um I’m also so I keep that in mind but I’m also wondering what’s going on right here because if you start looking at this a little bit closer in the context of everything and again in the conversation let’s go a little let’s go four hours here we can see that we made a slightly higher high the RSI did not climb into overbought this time um it’s not a real obvious Divergence but anyway it seems to have lost a bit of RSI momentum there and that of course is not a signal in itself and I don’t know why this line is not touching where it’s supposed to be but uh actually you know what I don’t even need that there right now U I’m wondering now the market is closed so this uh this is a regular trading hour candle here let me blow this up and I’m wondering if we’re going to see this roll over and if it does I would look at this as a potential failure to go higher and this could be a short trade in my book now in the aftermarket we’re already moving into the Gap and so I I’m seeing this as a potential short trade and the thing I like about it is if we go in even closer now let’s go on down to a 30 minute if this were to be a Top Again the price has already moved down here and we can look at that here on the on the future side in a second but if this were to be a top the risk above this to test the hypothesis is very little so let’s go ahead and look at the the 10-year Futures and we can see I don’t have everything drawn up the same way but here’s the 50% and uh now we’re we’re we’re it’s having trouble moving holding Above This level so a a short trade here is what I’m possibly interested in with a stop right over top of there and if you like something uh this is just the the small contract and uh the book is thin but it handles a few contracts and I don’t let that worry me too much if I want to trade this in a smaller account but if you want to trade something with a little more Gusto to it here’s the uh I’m sorry I didn’t mean that let’s go back to the uh the Futures Contract on the 10-year the 10-year note and of course this is inverse now but uh here’s a here’s a potential move coming back up um if what I’m seeing is is correct so I I don’t know it’s an idea it’s something to watch it’s something that could actually turn into a great asymmetrical risk reward and that’s what attracts me to the Chart if it’s going to fail if the tenure is not going to hold that level that we’re looking at here then the reward for this type of risk is pretty good and so that’s what has me very interested in this chart today hi my name is Mike with the shadow Trader squawkbox I’d like to invite you to join me in the trading room where we study charts together search out good trade ideas and we spend quite a bit of time talking about what it takes to get along successfully in this journey that we are all on oh by the way don’t forget to hit the like And subscribe buttons below if you enjoyed this video today and as we always say here at Shadow Trader I wish you a good trading and I’ll see you in the room
Exploring Fibonacci retracements and RSI momentum on daily and hourly scales
Observing Market Behavior and RSI Momentum on Different Time Scales
…I’m wondering if we’re seeing a right shoulder pattern formation. As I analyze this on a daily scale, the price has tested a Fibonacci retracement level of 50%, indicating a potential shift. Looking at a four-hour scale, a slightly higher high was made, but RSI momentum did not climb into overbought territory, hinting at a possible loss of momentum.
Potential Trading Opportunity Based on Technical Analysis
…If the market rolls over, there could be a short trade opportunity, especially considering the slight divergence in RSI momentum. By zooming into a 30-minute chart, if this is indeed a top, the risk above this level is minimal. Considering a short trade with a stop-loss strategy can be beneficial in this scenario.
Examining the 10-Year Futures Contract for Entry Points
…Here’s a potential move back up, indicating a trade setup if the analysis proves correct. An asymmetrical risk-reward scenario presents itself. If the tenure fails to hold the identified level, there could be a rewarding opportunity for traders.
Identifying potential short trade opportunities based on risk-reward ratios
Exploring Fibonacci retracements and RSI momentum on daily and hourly scales
…As I analyze this on a daily scale, the price has tested a Fibonacci retracement level of 50%, indicating a potential shift. Looking at a four-hour scale, a slightly higher high was made, but RSI momentum did not climb into overbought territory, hinting at a possible loss of momentum.
Potential Trading Opportunity Based on Technical Analysis
…If the market rolls over, there could be a short trade opportunity, especially considering the slight divergence in RSI momentum. By zooming into a 30-minute chart, if this is indeed a top, the risk above this level is minimal. Considering a short trade with a stop-loss strategy can be beneficial in this scenario.
Examining the 10-Year Futures Contract for Entry Points
…Here’s a potential move back up, indicating a trade setup if the analysis proves correct. An asymmetrical risk-reward scenario presents itself. If the tenure fails to hold the identified level, there could be a rewarding opportunity for traders.
Join Shadow Trader squawkbox for expert chart analysis and trading insights
…I’m wondering if we’re seeing a right shoulder pattern formation. As I analyze this on a daily scale, the price has tested a Fibonacci retracement level of 50%, indicating a potential shift. Looking at a four-hour scale, a slightly higher high was made, but RSI momentum did not climb into overbought territory, hinting at a possible loss of momentum.
…If the market rolls over, there could be a short trade opportunity, especially considering the slight divergence in RSI momentum. By zooming into a 30-minute chart, if this is indeed a top, the risk above this level is minimal. Considering a short trade with a stop-loss strategy can be beneficial in this scenario.
…Here’s a potential move back up, indicating a trade setup if the analysis proves correct. An asymmetrical risk-reward scenario presents itself. If the tenure fails to hold the identified level, there could be a rewarding opportunity for traders.
